Birthday Candles & Market Scandals
A Farmer's Guide to Rock Bottom
Holy guacamole, we made it a whole year. Somebody order a smash cake and fire up the ol’ RCA Camcorder.
That’s right, gang. This here little pamphlet dealio turns one today. Happy birthday to the FFT! It's hard to believe we’ve been at this for one rooster tail around the sun.
You know what they say: time flies like an arrow, and fruit flies like a banana…or something.
He's resorting to dad jokes now? Gee cripes. What kinda birthday party is this?
Writing this thing has been a pleasure to treasure, and I appreciate you all checking in each week, both those of you who’ve been since the leaflet’s inception and those who just joined yesterday.
Cheers to year one and many more to come!
Now that we’ve wrapped up the happy housekeeping hokum, it’s time to get down to trass backs.
Are you ready for this?
It’s a jungle out there right now.
While hog farmers like my comrade
struggle to stay profitable, commodity prices continue their historic slide, and inputs like fertilizers and land rent remain elevated.Cyclical businesses, man. I tell ya what.
Farming can be as frustrating as having a piece of beef jerky stuck in your teeth during a nationwide floss shortage.
I want to remind everyone that I am not an investment advisor, and nothing in this pamphlet should be considered investing advice. I'm like the Billy Beane of the investment world, the coach who couldn't play.
Relying on my market opinions for actual trading would be as unwise as purchasing thirty tickets to a Garth Brooks concert to resell them at a higher price just before he announces a half-dozen more shows in the same city.
Not that anyone would be half-witted enough to do that, lol. 🙈
Listen, it’s easy to get swept away by all the negativity surrounding cheap grain and greedy landlords when the light at the end of the tunnel is dimmer than America’s current political landscape.
I won’t give a pep talk and tell ya to hang in there, slugger. Platitudes ain’t gonna help anybody.
It sucks, but…well, that’s the way she goes, Ricky.
A fella must be patient and disciplined enough to ride it out without losing the farm.
Eventually, the cycle will turn. This won’t last forever. Just don’t be like the man behind the keyboard and let losing money lead to a series of poor decisions that lead to even poorer decisions and, eventually, the poor house.
You know the drill. Top up those bins and hunker down; we could be here for a while.
The good news is that most farmers have been through this before and know that the peaks always follow the troughs.
When things get this low, the only way to go is up. I’ll see ya at the top of the hill.
Thanks so much for reading, and have a fantastic week. ✌️
Any wagers on how low corn goes?
What kind of cake should we get the pamphlet for its special day?
Guacamole. Yes or no?
Forgive me for the dad joke yet?
"Disclaimer: Nothing I say should be construed as investment advice. All information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions."
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Congrats on the milestone!! Looking forward to another year, of reading, not farming, but that's another story for another time.
I'm pullin' for ya Adam, but man oh man, you are On. The. Treadmill! Consider putting just ONE acre into a high-value crop just to experiment. Chestnuts can make you $10,000 an acre after 7 years (with no further inputs but mowing) just for example and you can plant your corn and soybeans between them while they're growing (OK, might have to limit spraying). Check out the Savanna Institute. They're doing good work. https://www.savannainstitute.org/ Or Kernza is a perennial wheat with a growing market. Hazelnuts and chickens are becoming a huge thing at the Regenerative Ag Alliance. There are other options and you're young enough to see the fruits of your labor. Hope you'll consider.